Wow, 2021 has been quite the year in real estate.  Statewide, the median home price is now $532,000, up 18.5% from last year. In Summit County (home to Breckenridge, Keystone, etc..) the median home is now 1.6m up almost 30% from last year.  Where does Colorado real estate go in 2022?  Will the staggering appreciation continue?

I wrote in my prior blog about the 3 factors that will influence real estate in 2022: Interest rates, inflation, and the pandemic (read more).  Colorado will be influenced by each of these factors but with a little bit of twist due to the uniqueness of Colorado real estate.  Below are predictions for Residential and Commercial real estate throughout Colorado.  On the residential I looked at Denver/Front range, Ski towns, and other more rural areas.

 

Front range/Denver 2022 real estate predictions

Denver is a young healthy city that has considerably less density than other like NY, Boston, Los Angeles, etc…  This will continue to drive demand from larger markets for quality of life and access to open space.  I don’t see this trend ending in 2022 but it will likely slow down as the economy slows a little.

Denver and the front range should see continued appreciation in 2022 albeit considerably lower than 2021.  As mortgage rates rise and houses continue to rise, more will be priced out which will in turn reduce demand. At the same time, there is very little available inventory which will enable prices to go a little higher on the tune of 5-10% in 2022.  I don’t see a correction in 2022, the wildcard is 2023.

Ski towns (Steamboat, Breckenridge, Vail, Aspen, Winter Park, Telluride) 2022 real estate predictions

The ski towns will continue to appreciate as international travel continues to be hit or miss.  High net worth buyers will continue to flock to Colorado ski towns for various lifestyle reasons.  Lack of inventory and extremely high building/remodeling costs will continue in 2022.  Furthermore, appreciation should continue in the range of around 10% in the Colorado resort communities as demand continues and supply remains constrained.

Other/rural/smaller markets in Colorado real estate predictions

I think the flight to the exurbs/rural areas will be a passing phenomenon in 2022 as people get back into the office and we continue to learn to live with Covid.  These areas should be flat at best to a decline of 5-10%.

2022 Colorado commercial real estate predictions

Office: A space will do well in 2022, B/C space will struggle but I don’t think the bottom will fall out on office as more companies relocate to Cities like Denver, CO Springs, etc…

Multifamily:  This sector should continue to excel with rising rents.  The big upside will be in lower priced B/C units where there is no new construction and tons of demand at the lower price points.

Industrial:  This sector will continue to increase in 2022 as warehousing/distribution/onshoring continue to play out.  Colorado will continue to be a hub for the intermountain west.

Retail:  Class A retail will do fine, big box/lower tiered retail will struggle as Covid continues to disrupt traditional buying patterns.

Summary

 

Residential and most commercial real estate in Colorado will continue a bit higher into 2022 as the state remains a desirable alternative to more dense coastal markets.  Furthermore, the mountain towns will continue to attract high net worth buyers due to their amenities/lifestyles.  There could be some surprises in 2022 that could alter these predictions such as higher inflation causing the federal reserve to slam the brakes on the economy a bit faster.  Fortunately, I don’t foresee this until late 2022 or early 2023. Although 2022 will continue to be a good year in real estate, this will likely be the peak in most markets, and I expect considerable turbulence heading into 2023.

 

Additional Reading/Resources

 

• https://car-co.stats.showingtime.com/docs/mmi/x/Statewide?src=map

 

 

 

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Written by Glen Weinberg, Owner Fairview Commercial Lending.  Glen has been published as an expert in hard money lending, real estate valuation, financing, and various other real estate topics in Bloomberg, Businessweek ,the Colorado Real Estate Journal, National Association of Realtors Magazine,  The Real Deal real estate news, the CO Biz Magazine, The Denver Post, The Scotsman mortgage broker guide, Mortgage Professional America and various other national publications.

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