Having lived and worked in the Colorado mountains for almost 25 years I have witnessed first hand the radical transformation that has occurred in every single ski town. How have ski town demographics changed? Is the moose a harbinger for big changes in each mountain town? What does this mean for the future of ski towns? What happens to real estate values? What are 3 big changes we are now seeing ?
The history of the moose in Colorado
In 1978, state wildlife experts transplanted 24 male and female moose from Wyoming and Utah to create a breeding population in North Park and provide hunting opportunities. 25 years ago when I moved to the mountains, I never saw moose in any ski town. I saw a random one in North park about 15 years ago on an inspection. Fast forward and now moose have reinhabited many locations including steamboat, Breckenridge, Vail, etc… The irony is that I now see more moose than deer. I took the pic above on my way to a trail with my dog.
Note, although moose look nice and gentle they are one of the meanest and most unpredictable animals so you want to give them some space and especially keep your dogs leashed around them as they have killed countless dogs that got too close.
The moose indicative of the radical changes to ski towns
Just as the moose are reshaping the forest, ski towns are also being reshaped. In a new community study of various mountain towns they found that there was a huge increase of new residents and second homeowners in recent years — 27% moved to the area in the last five years and 57% since 2008. Not surprisingly, the survey showed mountain communities with a population that is older and wealthier than most others. This new demographic with almost 2/3s new residents in the last 5 years is radically altering the respective Colorado ski towns.
New community survey of residents and second home owners
A new survey of 4,000 people in Eagle, Grand, Pitkin, Routt and Summit counties quantifies communities in flux as full-time residents — both renters and homeowners — part-time residents, elected officials and second homeowners adjust to resort economies that are shifting away from a sole reliance on tourists.
Furthermore, most respondents agreed with the statement that “the area is overcrowded because of too many visitors.” The sentiments in ski towns are radically changing as most of the newcomers are not dependent on tourism like they were historically.
Change in demographics radically altering local politics
Long and short the change in demographics of the various mountain towns is radically altering local policies and in turn having impacts on real estate. Here are three big changes impacting real estate in the Colorado ski towns due to changing demographics
- Nightly rental regulations will increase: With less residents dependent on tourism, there is no mystery why nightly rentals are in the cross hairs of full time residents. We have seen huge changes in nightly rental regulation in every Colorado ski town. These range from taxes, to caps on how many nights you can rent, prohibitions in certain areas/zones, and countless other regulations. Look for this trend to only accelerate as the demographics in ski towns migrate away from a tourism centric economy.
- Affordable housing will remain a huge issue: The changing demographics have also brought an unintended byproduct of affordable housing. AS prices have risen so quickly it is not possible for most locals that are direly needed in the respective ski towns to live in the towns. With median home prices exceeding 1.5m and interest rates topping 7% there is no way to make the numbers work which is leading to increased strains on housing. I don’t see this situation resolving anytime soon if ever.
- Real Estate Prices will stay lofty: With so many newcomers and a strong desire for the mountain lifestyle after Covid, prices in every Colorado ski town have gone through the roof. I see this trend moderating but I don’t see any huge downside risk in the various ski towns as there is no way to create additional inventory in most ski towns and furthermore the new purchasers are more often than not buying in cash and are substantially wealthier than most prior residents which further limits the downside. Don’t get me wrong, there can always been small hiccups in values, but over the long run, the Colorado mountain towns will continue to outperform most other markets.
Summary
The moose in the crosswalk is a stark reminder of the radical changes each ski town is experiencing and will continue to experience. With almost 60% of all residents new in the last 5 years there are no doubt big changes are in store as the newcomers are older, wealthier, and not dependent on the tourism economy. This demographic change will lead to three big changes in mountain real estate: 1) Increased nightly rental regulations 2) Increased pressure on affordable housing 3) Increasing prices over the long term. With the changes in demographics each of these trends looks to accelerate over the next five years so do not underestimate the changes coming. The Moose using a crosswalk is just one of many coming down the pipe.
Additional Reading/Resources
- https://coloradosun.com/2024/06/25/resort-communities-survey-tourism-resident/
- https://coloradohardmoney.com/why-are-silverthorne-and-granby-real-estate-prices-falling-what-colorado-towns-are-next/
- https://coloradohardmoney.com/will-ski-real-estate-prices-move-higher-later-this-year/
- https://coloradohardmoney.com/6-co-ski-towns-rentals-effect-on-estate/
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Glen Weinberg personally writes these weekly real estate blogs based on his real estate experience as a lender and property owner. He is the owner of Fairview Commercial Lending. Glen has been published as an expert in hard money lending, real estate valuation, financing, and various other real estate topics in Bloomberg, Businessweek ,the Colorado Real Estate Journal, National Association of Realtors Magazine, The Real Deal real estate news, the CO Biz Magazine, The Denver Post, The Scotsman mortgage broker guide, Mortgage Professional America and various other national publications.
Glen resides in Colorado, lends in Colorado, owns property in Colorado, and services loans in Colorado which provides a unique real estate prospective of what is actually happening on the ground both in Denver and throughout Colorado. My goal of this real estate blog is to provide an honest assessment of what I see happening in Colorado real estate and how it will impact real estate owners, buyers, realtors, mortgage professionals, etc…
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