Home values in Denver are falling faster than any other major metro area tracked by a key index, earning the Mile High City a dubious distinction as the weakest housing market in the nation. From the chart above it looks like Denver is in a free fall compared to other markets. On the flip side, look at the chart below from Redfin and Zillow. Who is correct? Is Denver falling, rising, or ???? Where is the Denver market really heading?
What was in the Data on Denver home prices from Case-Schiller?
More than half of major U.S. metropolitan areas posted year-over-year home price declines in February, with Denver (-2.2%) displacing Tampa (-2.1%) as the weakest market, according to data from the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index released Tuesday.
The slowdown in Denver’s market has been long forecast by experts, with Realtor.com® reporting last spring that the market had seen an explosion of inventory that presaged falling prices.
Local real estate agents say a combination of factors is to blame, including a slowdown in migration to Colorado from other states, rising insurance costs, and a downturn in demand for condos and townhomes, which make up an outsized share of the Denver market.
Zillow data showing even worse price drops
Now take a look at the Zillow data. It is showing a year over year price decline of 4.3%, which is almost double the price declines shown in the Case Schiller index. The interesting part in the chart above is that Zillow is refraining from giving a prediction for the remainder of the year.
Redfin polar opposite of Zillow and Case Schiller
On the total flip side, Redfin’s recent data shows home prices are gaining 5%. This is polar opposite of Zillow and Case Schiller and based on this interpretation the Denver market is not just fine, it is outperforming most other markets.
Which of the three data sources are correct?
Looking at the charts above you basically have three completely different answers. Zillow Showing a 4.3% decline, Case Schiller showing a 2.2% decline, and Redfin showing a 5% gain. This is a huge variation of almost 10% spread amongst the three data sources.
To put this in perspective, a median 600k house could be worth 630k according to Redfin (+5%), 587k according to the Case Schiller (-2.2%), or 570k according to Zillow (-4.3%). In essence the difference in the house price would be almost 80k from the Zillow to the Redfin prediction. This I quite the difference!
Can you extrapolate this data to predict prices in Denver?
Based on the data above, can you predict what happens to house prices the remainder of the year? Before answering the question, it is important to note that the number of sales is typically lower in the first quarter of the year than in the second quarter. This means that we need to be careful making sweeping predictions on the future due to the limited data. With that said, there are trends emerging in Denver that are pointing to a flat or slightly declining market. Some of the big trends include a flailing office market which is going to soften employment growth in Denver, the number of companies relocating, rising inventory, the condo crisis we are seeing, etc… Long and short Denver is in for a bumpy ride the remainder of this year.
Should you worry about falling prices in Denver?
To answer the question above depends on your particular situation. Anyone who bought in the last three years (and especially at the peak around 2022) is in for a shock as prices have adjusted downward 10% or more in some areas (depending on the property type, location, etc..).
On the flip side if you bought greater than 5 years ago you are likely to have substantial equity so a hiccup in the market is not a huge deal. The true answer is that if you don’t have to sell, then long term the market will recover albeit it is unlikely to be at the same pace as we have seen prior to 2022.
What happens to prices in Denver the remainder of 26 and into 27
If you look at the three charts above, their predictions on prices are all over the map with a huge disparity from increasing 5% to decreasing 5%. Which one is correct? Unfortunately, each one could be correct based on the data set they are using, but personally I think prices will be best case flat, worst case 5-10% down. Note one of the biggest drivers of falling prices in Denver can be attributed to condos. If I exclude condos, then single family prices will likely be down around 5% or flat. On the flip side, condos could fall another 10%-15% depending on the complex which will put pressure on the overall prices throughout the front range.
I would caution you not to draw any huge conclusions that Denver and the front range are going to drop like 2008. Fortunately, I don’t see that in the cards, but there will be some pain depending on if someone has to sell now and the particular submarket.
On a side note, remember real estate is hyper local so drawing wide sweeping conclusions is ill advised. For example, Boulder is basically flat with little downward pressure and yet is still considered part of Denver in most statistics. The same could be said for areas like Cherry Creek or Evergreen. My advice would be to make sure you know the market and if you don’t ensure you have a trusted partner/realtor that does. Now is not the time to wing it as there is considerably more downside risk than upside.
Also remember, in every cycle (up or down) there are opportunities you just need to be patient and liquid to ensure success.
Additional Reading/Resources:
- https://www.redfin.com/city/5155/CO/Denver/housing-market
- https://www.zillow.com/home-values/11093/denver-co/
- https://car-co.stats.showingtime.com/docs/lmu/2026-03/x/DenverCounty?src=page
- Denver Surpasses Tampa as Market With Fastest-Falling Home Values
- https://coloradohardmoney.com/will-colorado-ski-prices-drop-this-spring-summer/
- https://coloradohardmoney.com/why-are-colorado-property-taxes-rising/
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Glen Weinberg personally writes these weekly real estate blogs based on his real estate experience as a lender and property owner. He is the owner of Fairview Commercial Lending. Glen has been published as an expert in hard money lending, real estate valuation, financing, and various other real estate topics in Bloomberg, Businessweek ,the Colorado Real Estate Journal, National Association of Realtors Magazine, The Real Deal real estate news, the CO Biz Magazine, The Denver Post, The Scotsman mortgage broker guide, Mortgage Professional America and various other national publications.
Glen resides in Colorado, lends in Colorado, owns property in Colorado, and services loans in Colorado which provides a unique real estate prospective of what is actually happening on the ground both in Denver and throughout Colorado. My goal of this real estate blog is to provide an honest assessment of what I see happening in Colorado real estate and how it will impact real estate owners, buyers, realtors, mortgage professionals, etc…
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