In my blog last week Low snow year impact on Colorado ski real estate prices, I asked the question what are your predictions for ski real estate prices. I was a bit surprised. My base case is no change in pricing, but the survey results were radically different. Who is correct on where ski prices head from here?
What was in the survey data on Colorado ski real estate prices?
A whopping 68% felt that prices would decline modestly due to the low snow year. On the flip side 28% agreed with me that prices will basically remain flat. A small minority 5% felt that ski prices were primed for a major reset I was also surprised that not a single respondent predicted an increase in ski prices.
I personally think the predictions are a bit pessimistic. My prediction is that ski prices will stay the same or possibly continue to increase due to other asset appreciation (stock market, other real estate, etc..).
Top Comments on Colorado ski real estate prices
The comments were pretty interesting from the survey, here are the top two that echo the general consensus:
- More and more people are changing their recreational preference now. Skiing is way down on the list of places people are looking for in the list of fun places to go and experience. Baby boomers have skied their entire lives and are tired of that sport! With no snow, they are definitely moving on!
- City and County focus on penalizing STRs have made them less profitable. Low skier numbers equal fewer rental days. These factors combine to reduce the desirability of these properties. When these are put back on the market for asset reallocation, they compete with non-business use homes. The result inevitably will be flat to lower prices.
Summary
The results from the last survey were surprising with not a single respondent predicting an upside surprise in Colorado ski real estate. Long and short the overwhelming majority of respondents are saying that Colorado ski real estate will either stay the same (best case) or decline modestly (most probable case). I’m going to disagree as from what I am seeing so far in most ski markets prices are remaining about the same with some markets continuing to report increased sale prices. One of the key takeaways is that regardless of pricing there could be some opportunities to pick up ski real estate below market due to the pullback in short term rentals, but this does not mean the sky will fall, just that there might be some pockets of distress. Thank you everyone who participated in the survey, your insights are amazing.
Additional Reading/Resources
- https://coloradohardmoney.com/low-snow-year-impact-on-colorado-ski-real-estate/
- https://coloradohardmoney.com/denver-inventory-surges-and-yet-prices-rise/
- https://coloradohardmoney.com/vail-loses-major-lawsuit-should-you-only-buy-real-estate-in-a-vail-resort/
- https://coloradohardmoney.com/colorado-property-taxes-jump-40-percent/
- https://coloradohardmoney.com/category/survey-results/
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Glen Weinberg personally writes these weekly real estate blogs based on his real estate experience as a lender and property owner. He is the owner of Fairview Commercial Lending. Glen has been published as an expert in hard money lending, real estate valuation, financing, and various other real estate topics in Bloomberg, Businessweek ,the Colorado Real Estate Journal, National Association of Realtors Magazine, The Real Deal real estate news, the CO Biz Magazine, The Denver Post, The Scotsman mortgage broker guide, Mortgage Professional America and various other national publications.
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