In my blog last week, Vail in big trouble, will they sell Breckenridge and Park City?, I asked each of you whether Vail’s days were numbered and a break up imminent. I was actually a bit surprised at how close the voting was as I thought it would be a total blow out one way or another. Depending on the scenario that plays out, what happens to Colorado ski real estate?
What was in the survey data on the possibility of a Vail Breakup?
60% of respondents thought Vail would get through the rough patch and remain as a whole. I was pretty surprised that 40% thought as I do that Vail is definitely at risk of a hostile takeover
Top Comments on will Vail be broken up due to their financials distress?.
After reading through all the comments there was one prevailing theme: Vail is facing some huge headwinds and is at an inflection point, either they will change radically or the market will force them to change through a breakup. I could not agree further, with the general sentiment, the current Vail model is broken.
The comments were pretty interesting from the survey, as you can see they are very polarizing on both ends of the spectrum.
- Between inflation and raising overhead costs, such has much higher hazard insurance, which was touched on in the article, I think that will push things over the edge. With all the fires they should be cringing over what the cost for hazard insurance alone will be.
- Even though Vail has been the worst thing for Breck in so many ways the sum of all the parts as far as a sale is better than breaking it up. I see Vail resorts as a total sale.
- A new age in recreation and climate bode ill for 20th century ski resorts
- Vail will not be “vail” as we know it. If the parts are worth more than the sum, the sum will “own” the parts… AKA mountain independence – Breck CB, etc will “fall out of ownership” from vail as… WHOLLY OWNED SUBSIDIARIES acting and marketed independently. Vail of course will be rebranded and Vail Mtn will be called Vail (and possibly keep the beaver creek too).
Summary
The results from the last survey were surprising to me as many are now coming around to the possibility of a Vail Breakup. Unfortunately, there is not a great solution for Vail’s woes the current all-you-can-Eat buffet is not working and yet Vail’s current solution is to continue on with the buffet! We will all have to wait and see how this all shakes out over the next several years. Thank you to everyone who participated in the survey, your insights are amazing.
Additional Reading/Resources
- https://coloradohardmoney.com/vail-in-big-trouble-will-they-sell-breckenridge-and-park-city/
- https://coloradohardmoney.com/one-co-town-proposes-to-tax-employers-for-hiring-workers/
- https://coloradohardmoney.com/legalized-prostitution-impacts-colorado-real-estate/
- https://coloradohardmoney.com/low-snow-year-impact-on-colorado-ski-real-estate/
- https://coloradohardmoney.com/denver-inventory-surges-and-yet-prices-rise/
- https://coloradohardmoney.com/vail-loses-major-lawsuit-should-you-only-buy-real-estate-in-a-vail-resort/
- https://coloradohardmoney.com/colorado-property-taxes-jump-40-percent/
- https://coloradohardmoney.com/category/survey-results/
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Glen Weinberg personally writes these weekly real estate blogs based on his real estate experience as a lender and property owner. He is the owner of Fairview Commercial Lending. Glen has been published as an expert in hard money lending, real estate valuation, financing, and various other real estate topics in Bloomberg, Businessweek ,the Colorado Real Estate Journal, National Association of Realtors Magazine, The Real Deal real estate news, the CO Biz Magazine, The Denver Post, The Scotsman mortgage broker guide, Mortgage Professional America and various other national publications.
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