Colorado is having a tough year. Snowfall was down nearly 60% over the holidays, resulting in only about 11% of skiable terrain being opened in December and skier visits are down 20%. Vail resorts, the largest ski operator, is getting hit hard as seen in the stock chart above.
Every resort in Colorado is in the same boat with abnormally warm temperatures and record low snowpack. Look at the pic I took in January in Aspen, you could play golf! What does the low snowpack year mean for ski real estate? Will we see a major reset in prices?
Vail Resorts Earnings show distress in ski industry
Vail released current earnings, and the results were not pretty. Vail’s stock price is down 50% in the past 5 years and the trend keeps getting worse.
The dramatic lack of snowfall in the Rockies “limited our ability to open terrain and negatively impacted visitation and ancillary spending for both local and destination guests during the period,” Chief Executive Officer Rob Katz said in a statement Thursday.
In September, Vail predicted fiscal 2026 earnings of $842 million to $898 million before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.
For the current season, skier visits to Vail’s resorts in North America, which include properties in Colorado, Utah and British Columbia, were down 20% from a year earlier through Jan. 4. Lift revenue was down 1.8%, the company said.
The saving grace for Vail and Alterra
I took the pic above of the golf course in Aspen (by Buttermilk) in mid January. I have never seen the snowpack this low in every single ski resort in Colorado.
Although snow has been tough this season, the saving grace for Vail and Alterra is that they have geographic diversity (East Coast, Rocky Mountains, International, etc…) along with locked in customers from pass sales. This will help both companies weather the recent downturn in ski visitation much better than smaller operators like a Granby Ranch or Purgatory.
Ski resorts based on location will be impacted differently
The impact of a low snow year on ski resorts around Colorado will not be uniform. For example:
Drive up communities like Breckenridge, Copper, Winter Park:
Drive up resorts will see more immediate pain from a low snow year. With limited terrain less drive up traffic from Denver will come to Breckenridge, Winter Park, Copper Mountain, Keystone, Arapahoe Basin, and Loveland. Without snow, many will not make the trek up to the mountains. This will also reduce a number of weekend overnights in many of these towns. During December, it felt considerably less crowded in Summit county than in past seasons without the drive up traffic. The saving grace is that drive up traffic is not as profitable as out of state visitors so the true revenue impact will not be as bad as the numbers suggest.
Destination resorts like Steamboat, Vail, Aspen performed better
At least over the holidays destination resorts like Steamboat, Vail, and Aspen fared better. Many out of state visitors had planned trips and came to the various ski towns regardless of the ski conditions. Although the actual ski hills were not doing great, the various towns seemed to be average in regard to busyness which means at least over the holiday season the impacts to most businesses will not be huge even though the snow was terrible.
Could be a delayed reaction to a low snow year
The million dollar question is what happens during the busy spring break period. My gut says that unless the mountains catch up substantially the busy spring break period will be down substantially from prior years as people have been hearing about the terrible snow pack and are making alternative plans from beaches, cruises, etc…
The other open question is what does this low snow year do for pass sales next year? If someone spent almost 1k on an Ikon pass and they only used it for a week or two, how likely are they going to be to buy a pass again. Fortunately consumers have pretty short memories and a lot will depend on what the snow pack is next year, but there could be some impacts.
What is the impact of low snow on ski real estate?
December is typically not a big month for ski purchases, so the data is not really showing much. With that said, from what I have seen and felt in the various ski towns, there doesn’t seem to be much of an impact so far. Many ski towns have evolved over the last 10 years as true year round destinations which should mitigate the impact of a low snow year. With that said, we are definitely not out of the woods, if the low snow year leads to a large fire season in Colorado with smoke and various impacts then we could start to see some bigger impacts.
Fortunately in almost every ski town there is limited inventory and very little if any spec building so I don’t see a huge impact from a low snow year. I would watch for a stock market correction or if there is a larger real estate correction in larger metro markets to predict a downturn in ski real estate.
Could be larger impacts to ski town budgets
Although ski real estate will likely be okay from the low snow year, ski town budgets will take a hit. Many ski resorts got through the holiday season as a result of pre bookings, but the spring season is up in the air. If the weather pattern does not change substantially look for sales tax revenue to decline in many ski markets, especially those more dependent on drive up traffic. On the flip side, ski towns could make up ground if it is a very hot summer for the rest of the country that could lead to increased bookings during the summer and fall.
Nightly rentals in ski towns will get hurt
Although overall ski real estate prices will not have much impact. Owners of nightly rentals especially in places like Breckenridge, Winter Park, Copper, etc… will definitely feel the sting of a low snow year. Non holiday weekends are likely down substantially as a front range skier might just come for the day as opposed to making a weekend out of it with a good snow year. I would expect bookings in many of the drive up markets to be down substantially which will hit owners cash flow hard.
Snowfall down but sky not falling on Colorado ski real estate
It has been a record low year for snowfall in Colorado ski country. Living in Colorado for almost 30 years I have never seen the snowpack so low and what has made it worse is that warm temps have melted much of the snowpack we have received.
The low snow is hitting resorts hard with Vail reporting visitation down 20% at many of its Rocky mountain resorts. Fortunately many of the destination visitors still came for the holidays which should minimize the revenue hit for most businesses over the December/January time frame.
The million dollar question is what happens the rest of the season. Is there a swift change in the weather patterns leading to increased visitation or are we stuck in the same pattern which will ultimately lead to drastically lower visitation at most resorts including the destination resorts that have so far been spared.
Although the snow pack has been terrible, I haven’t seen this carry over to ski real estate. Most ski towns are fully built out and have become year round destinations with lots of visitation now in the Summer and fall seasons which should help minimize one bad season. My gut says that the low snowfall is a blip for real estate and will not have much lasting impact one way or another, but we will have to wait a while to see what happens during the busy summer/fall buying seasons to know for sure.
Additional Reading/Resources:
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-15/vail-resorts-says-snowfall-in-the-rockies-was-60-below-average?srnd=homepage-americas
- https://www.vaildaily.com/news/vail-resorts-ceo-addresses-low-snowpack-in-update-to-investors/
- https://coloradohardmoney.com/nightly-rental-taxes-in-colorado-ski-towns/
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Glen Weinberg personally writes these weekly real estate blogs based on his real estate experience as a lender and property owner. He is the owner of Fairview Commercial Lending. Glen has been published as an expert in hard money lending, real estate valuation, financing, and various other real estate topics in Bloomberg, Businessweek ,the Colorado Real Estate Journal, National Association of Realtors Magazine, The Real Deal real estate news, the CO Biz Magazine, The Denver Post, The Scotsman mortgage broker guide, Mortgage Professional America and various other national publications.
Glen resides in Colorado, lends in Colorado, owns property in Colorado, and services loans in Colorado which provides a unique real estate prospective of what is actually happening on the ground both in Denver and throughout Colorado. My goal of this real estate blog is to provide an honest assessment of what I see happening in Colorado real estate and how it will impact real estate owners, buyers, realtors, mortgage professionals, etc…
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