The appreciation over the last seven years throughout Colorado has been astounding, but now it is time to pay the piper. What cities in Colorado are most at risk of rewinding most if not all of the Covid appreciation gains? Why are “suburban” markets more at risk than others? What do all these markets have in common? What are the top 5 reasons a major reset is coming?
The Covid bump in ski real estate that is unsustainable
During Covid, especially at the peak of real estate in around 2020/21 everything with four walls was flying of the shelf. There was a theory that everyone would live in the country and work remotely forever. Fast forward to 2026 and tides have definitely changed and market fundamentals are catching up with the insane price increases.
The list below should not surprise as prices have gotten out of hand in many of these areas
5 reasons “suburban” ski town markets will reset:
I’ll define “suburban ski markets” as non core markets greater than 20 or 30 miles from the ski areas. These areas have had huge appreciation where buyers scrambled to get into the ski markets but could not afford the core ski markets, but the tide is turning quickly. As inventory increases in core ski markets like Steamboat, Breckenridge, or Winter Park which will cause a tsunami of inventory in the suburban markets. There are five primary reasons that ski town “suburban markets” are primed for a major reset.
- Huge appreciation unsustainable: Let’s look at two “suburban” markts on the list. Both Granby and Silverthorne were “affordable” prepandemic. Fast forward and the median prices are now almost 1m in Silverthorne and 850k in Granby. The affordable markets are no longer affordable and yet they are garnering “ski town” prices even though they are not ski towns.
- Not core ski markets: For example with traffic it could still take over an hour to get to Breckenridge skiing from Silverthorne or Winter Park from Granby. The same could be said of Gunnison, Idaho Springs, Kremmling, and to some extent Hayden. If someone is looking for a ski property it is not worth it at this price point to be this far from skiing
- Nightly rental reset: the huge increases in nightly rentals throughout Colorado has led to enormous capacity issues which means closer in (ski in ski out) are still performing while suburban or exurban markets are getting hammered on utilization and pricing
- Larger impact from mortgage rates: The suburban markets were “affordable” areas and much more likely to use a mortgage than a city like Breckenridge. As rates increased substantially, payments were no longer affordable for buyers.
- Disconnect between income and pricing: The only people able to buy in most of the suburban markets are either tourists from outside the area or highly paid remote workers. As remote workers continue to return to the office (or get laid off from many major companies) the demand will decrease substantially.
What ski town Suburbs are most at risk of a reset
I listed my top seven “suburban” ski markets most at risk. I put them I order of risk with Silverthorne falling the most and towns like Gunnison falling less
- Silverthorne: This is the riskiest of all the suburban markets as prices have gotten way ahead of themselves while inventory is also increasing substantially. Furthermore there are a number of new projects coming online that will further increase supply.
- Granby: the median year over year price decline was about 12.5% according to realtor.com. Values were predicated on nightly rentals which are having substantially less utilization as people book in Winter Park
- Fairplay: South of Summit over Hoosier pass. There is nothing in Fairplay to justify the price other than it is a less expensive area close to Summit county.
- Idaho Springs: This area has also seen huge appreciation. The question is what is Idaho springs, an exurb of Denver, a quasi mountain town? It is too far for it to be considered a ski town.
- Leadville: about 45 minutes from the ski areas, also an affordable area that has gotten a bit ahead of itself with values quickly appreciating over the last 5 years.
- Kremmling: about 40 minutes north of Silverthorne, this area has come up in value substantially as a result of Summit county prices.
- Gunnison: the median home price is around 650k, and yet it is about 30-40 minutes from Crested Butte, salaries in Crested Butte or Gunnison can’t support the home prices
How much could prices fall in the suburban ski markets?
My gut is that many of the suburban ski towns could experience a hefty reset with places like Silverthorne falling 20% plus while places like Gunnison will fall 10-15% from their peak. It will not be a sudden drop, more of a slow drip over the next year or so
Where should you still invest in Mountain real estate?
Ski real estate will still outperform most markets. But not all ski real estate is the same. The core ski towns will hold up the best. Aspen, Crested Butte, Steamboat, Vail, etc… in the actual towns not suburbs of these areas. Although prices are high in each of the ski towns, I don’t foresee the bottom dropping out.
Summary of ski real estate price resets
Although suburban ski towns like Silverthorn are located near ski towns, they are not core ski markets. Yet even though they are not core ski markets, their prices have increased substantially and gotten closer to other core ski markets. This price appreciation is not sustainable as buyers aren’t going to pay a huge premium to be 40 minutes from a ski resort (other than in Aspen where the median home price is over 5m, a good example is Basalt which should hold up okay). The Suburban ski markets will experience a eset in prices over the next year with some experiencing 20+ percent corrections off their peak prices. Although the suburban ski markets will drop, the closer in core ski markets will do better than others and have considerably less risk.
Additional Reading/Resources:
- https://coloradohardmoney.com/2025-best-colorado-ski-real-estate/
- https://coloradohardmoney.com/what-is-the-best-colorado-ski-town-to-buy-real-estate-in/
- https://www.fairviewlending.com/what-is-the-best-ski-town-investment/
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Glen Weinberg personally writes these weekly real estate blogs based on his real estate experience as a lender and property owner. He is the owner of Fairview Commercial Lending. Glen has been published as an expert in hard money lending, real estate valuation, financing, and various other real estate topics in Bloomberg, Businessweek ,the Colorado Real Estate Journal, National Association of Realtors Magazine, The Real Deal real estate news, the CO Biz Magazine, The Denver Post, The Scotsman mortgage broker guide, Mortgage Professional America and various other national publications.
Glen resides in Colorado, lends in Colorado, owns property in Colorado, and services loans in Colorado which provides a unique real estate prospective of what is actually happening on the ground both in Denver and throughout Colorado. My goal of this real estate blog is to provide an honest assessment of what I see happening in Colorado real estate and how it will impact real estate owners, buyers, realtors, mortgage professionals, etc…
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